Christopher Dgheim

Since early 2025, the US-Venezuela tensions didn’t cease increasing, reaching its tipping point with Trump’s presidency's effort to crack down drug trafficking.Tensions first arose between these two American states in 1999 when Hugo Chávez, a self-proclaimed socialist, became the Venezuelan president.

Indeed, Chávez affirmed his “anti-imperialism” stance, attacking implicitly the US. Then, in 2002, the Latin-American state faced a failed coup d'état, that Chávez was quick to blame on George W. Bush, the US head of state at the time.Fast forward to 2025, when in January, Joe Biden increased the Bounty on Maduro, Venezuela’s current president, from 15 to 25 million US dollars.

And in March, Trump doubled that price to 50 million. In that same month, Trump detained over 200 Venezuelans to deport them, accusing them of having ties to “Tren de Aragua” (TdA), a cartel designated by the “US department of state” as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” a month prior. Nevertheless, in September, a court ruled  that Trump can't expedite their deportation.

Talking about cartels, the “US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control”, an organization responsible for imposing sanctions, designated “Cartel de Los Soles” as a “Specially Designated Foreign Terrorist”.

This is relevant due to the cartel’s widely accepted affiliation to high ranking government officials. The official white house websites even claims that “Maduro leads the regime-sponsored enterprise Cártel de los Soles, which coordinates with and relies on TdA”.Nonetheless, what really exacerbated relations is the deployment of three worships containing around 4000 American Marine and sailors close to Venezuela, under the pretext of drug trafficking control. This move was considered by most analysts as a power show off and an intimidation rather than a war preparation.

On the other hand, Maduro claimed that it was intended for a regime change, and declared “maximum preparedness”In fact, to respond to the US threat, Maduro ordered the mobilization of 4.5 million Bolivarian militia members (a reserve force within Venezuela’s Bolivarian National Armed Forces) accompanied by drones and military worships along the coastline and border, fearing a US invasion, with Colombia being a possible front. Moreover, he affirmed that any attack from the United States would lead to a republic in arms, signaling his readiness for war.Meanwhile, democrats are attacking Trump on his handling of the situation, comparing the potential Venezuela invasion to that of Vietnam, due to their similar geographies (both contain massive jungles). They believe that like in Vietnam, the US will face serious difficulties in Venezuela, and that it will likely cause a sizeable number of deaths. Trump responded to them by declaring that “all options are on the table” claiming that he won’t rule out the option of a full-scale war. It’s also important to note that from August 28th until the 2nd of September, Trump went absent from media, making the opposition speculate that he is preparing for war (among other theories).This all culminated in the evening of September the 2nd, when the US struck a boat carrying drugs, originating from Venezuela. The US president than broke his silence, and declared that 11 Tren de Aragua affiliates were killed. This marks the first time the US carried a lethal military action on a Venezuela boat since 1999. Trump considers this attack a success against drug trafficking.However, while Venezuela has not yet issued an official statement on the matter (at the time of writing), some officials are denying that the attack ever happened, claiming that it was generated using artificial intelligence. For instance, that’s what the minister of communication, Freddy Ñáñez, evoqued on his telegram channel.So, with Trump being seemingly absent from the media for a week, before targeting a Venezuelan ship, and with Maduro threatening war in case of an attack, will a new war break out?