Tracing Lebanon's Demographic Transformation: Causes and Ramifications

Dear 2023 Self,

I write this message to you, from 2030, so I can tell you about the current Lebanese situation. I write to you so you can change your future.

As I sit here in 2030, still committed to our homeland Lebanon, I reflect on the drastic demographic changes that have unfolded since your time. I remember the fervent dedication you possessed to address the challenges plaguing our nation and ensure a brighter future. Today, those challenges have evolved, leaving an indelible mark on our society and compelling me to delve into the past to understand the causes of our current reality.

In 2023, the signs were already apparent: a staggering 40% of citizens were choosing to emigrate during their prime productive years (18-65). This marked the beginning of a mass exodus that would profoundly reshape our nation. The factors driving this trend were complex and intertwined, emanating from a mix of political, economic, and social pressures.

The political landscape of 2023 was marked by a struggle for power and representation, which often overshadowed the needs of the people. Corruption, lack of accountability, and an inability to enact meaningful reforms eroded citizens' trust in their government's ability to effect positive change. The disillusionment felt by the youth was particularly acute; they envisioned a different Lebanon, one that provided opportunities and upheld their rights. As their hopes dimmed, the allure of more stable and prosperous countries became increasingly enticing.

Economically, Lebanon faced a cascade of challenges. A ballooning public debt and a depreciating currency weakened the economy, leading to high inflation and unemployment rates. The cost of living soared, making it increasingly difficult for families to make ends meet. Moreover, the lack of investment in key sectors like technology and innovation limited opportunities for job growth and innovation, forcing skilled individuals to seek better prospects abroad.

Socially, the fabric of our society underwent shifts as well. The traditional sense of belonging and community was strained as divisions deepened along political and sectarian lines. This not only hindered cohesive action to address our nation's problems but also contributed to a sense of exclusion among certain groups. The resulting frustration and feeling of being unheard further fueled the desire to leave and seek acceptance and belonging elsewhere.

Fast-forward to 2023, and the numbers are strikingly grim: 70% of Lebanese youth are immigrants. The very generation that should have been the catalyst for progress and transformation has been compelled to seek opportunities outside our borders. The youth you and I once tried to empower and engage in political change have been scattered across the globe.

The consequences of this demographic shift are profound. Our nation's potential is being drained as the minds and skills that could have rebuilt our country now contribute to other nations' prosperity. The economy suffers from a dearth of skilled workers, innovation stagnates, and the social fabric continues to fray. The hope of fostering a diverse, vibrant society in Lebanon is threatened as our population becomes increasingly homogenous.

Dear self, the whole problem lies in the governing system, and not the people. Your only salvation is the civil state. A state that assures the benefit of the Lebanese, and only the benefit of the Lebanese. A state where corruption is not covered by sectarian figure heads. A state where media is free. A state with free medication and education. A rich state, where people immigrate to, rather than people immigrating from. Lebanon should not turn into a residence for old people only, but also a factory for young innovators. Change your fate for you can make the paradise exist.

As I write this, I find myself grappling with the challenge of reversing this trend. The road ahead is arduous, but not insurmountable. Our shared dream of a prosperous and united Lebanon still lives on, and I remain dedicated to bringing it to fruition. The lessons from 2023 and the intervening years have taught me that comprehensive reforms spanning politics, economics, and society are imperative. It is my hope that by 2030, we can inspire a return of our compatriots who sought brighter horizons and offer them a transformed Lebanon—one that values their potential and champions their aspirations.

With sincere wishes of luck and hope,

Your 2030 Self,