Lebanon’s Disintegrated Economy: Teetering on the brink of the Russian Ukrainian Conflict

The Lebanese economic crisis is not only impacted by local political struggles and systematic corruption problems, but also escalated due to the NATO _ Nord Stream 2 geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the main wheat and gas exporters to Europe and the Middle East.

Import or Export? : Yes, we (the settlers on this planet) sail in the same boat! The aftermath of war is not bound by borders; The whole world is interconnected to each other through rivers, oceans, common interests, technology, food and fossil fuel supply, trade and even political decisions. Ahmad Hoteit, president of the Association of Mills in Lebanon assures that Lebanon is going to be affected by the Russian Ukrainian war because it imports about 80 percent of its wheat from Ukraine. Such a global threat to Lebanon’s food security requires the government to take urgent measures to stop exporting the Lebanese wheat crops and modify the Lebanese laws that hinder the government from buying local wheat from LRA (Litani River Authority). The Lebanese Cabinet has to hold a meeting to carry out the action plan needed for food security without any procrastinations.

Nord Stream 2, NATO’s scruples and fuel price fluctuations in Lebanon : “a system of offshore natural gas pipelines in Europe, running under the Baltic sea from Russia to Germany”, Nord Stream 2 represents a real threat to NATO allies, especially when we know that Europe gets about 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia. Nord Stream 2 was completed last September, but has not operated yet. Biden, the US president had previously threatened to hinder the operation of NS2 if Russia invades Ukraine, the would-be NATO member. The US, UK, Poland and Ukraine oppose the NS2 operation and refuse to be strangled geopolitically by Putin’s icy web and fiery temper to revive the Soviet Union power. The US had imposed some sanctions on Russian companies involved in NS2 project excluding Gernan firms for diplomatic reasons. It seems American sanctions on Russia did not even bother the latter’s systematic plans to dominate Europe economically and politically.

All these factors will contribute to drive up fuel prices worldwide and constrict supplies. Drained and burned out, the Lebanese will not be able to bear such huge jumps in their energy bills. The Lebanese currency is expected to drop drastically in value after the elections due to political and financial mismanagement and corruption along with the detrimental effects of the Russian Ukrainian war.

Syria, the land of Moscow with Turkish borders: As noted above, Lebanon will be affected indirectly by the Russian Ukrainian Conflict. However, Syria might welcome new disputes on its land. Turkey, the country with NATO’s power, controls portions of Northern Syria. On the other hand, the sustainable military presence of Russian forces in Syria might ignite a “soft conflict” between Russia and Iran as well as a bloody one between Russia and Turkey. Thus, Hezbullah might be ordered by Iran to be part and parcel of the regional conflict to save Iran’s interests in the Middle East. Such tensions in the region will lead to the increase of the number of refugees and inflation in Lebanon.

The Lebanese people can change this catastrophic destiny if they vote for new independent candidates in the coming parliamentary elections in May. Otherwise, we will keep importing not only overpriced goods, but also international and regional struggles even without imposing customs duties.