Harirism emerged with the rise of Rafic Hariri from the world of business and wealth to executive power, during a regional moment that encouraged the restructuring of the Lebanese system under the umbrella of the Taif Agreement.

Harirism was entrenched when Hariri assumed leadership of the first government in 1992, becoming an axis of internal balance, relying on Arab, particularly Saudi, support and extensive international relations cultivated over years of external work, opening the world to the exhausted and war-torn country. During that stage, Harirism formed a political-economic state rather than a traditional party, combining financial influence, executive management, and broad representation within the Sunni community, which the Taif Constitution endowed with expanded powers at the expense of the Maronite presidency and its people.

Lebanon witnessed two decades of Hariri holding executive power, marked by growth and reconstruction, which came at a high cost, with his name closely linked to the reconstruction project and financial stability.

With Saad Hariri assuming leadership, the movement entered a different phase. Saad inherited his father’s political and symbolic legacy, but in a more complex internal and regional context. He led the "Future Movement" government more than once, facing major challenges, most notably severe political divisions, struggles with Hezbollah, and presidential settlements that brought Michel Aoun to power, which exhausted Hariri the son, especially after the economic crises erupted, leading to the 2019 collapse, the first signs of which were reflected in the outbreak of the popular uprising.

Harirism began to lose some of its popular and political presence, as the movement faced a drastically different reality: internal vertical divisions, the rise of Hezbollah as a regional player, and the diminishing effectiveness of traditional settlements. Events such as May 7, 2008, Hariri's visit to Syria and his handshake with Assad, the 2016 presidential settlement, and the sudden 2017 resignation were pivotal points that revealed the limits of the new Harirism’s political strength compared to the founding father’s legacy. The deteriorating relationship with Saudi Arabia had the most negative impact on the continuity and influence of Harirism, even at the Sunni street level. That relationship shifted from Hariri the father’s sponsorship to a gradual chill under Hariri the son, reflecting the kingdom’s changing approach to the Lebanese file as a whole. Saudi Arabia, which had seen Harirism as a pillar of moderate Sunni influence, became more stringent toward any internal settlement that did not alter the balance of power with Hezbollah.

In this context, recent years have shown indicators of political and personal constraints on Saad Hariri, seen as part of a broader Saudi repositioning in Lebanon, rather than merely an individual measure.

Saad Hariri's announcement to suspend political work in 2022 was not merely a personal decision but the result of regional and local political deadlock, whose repercussions continue to this day. With the upcoming parliamentary elections in which the "Future Movement" appears unlikely to participate, Hariri has maintained his suspension of political activity, amid Saudi Arabia’s decision to lift its support from him.

Today, on the 21st anniversary of Hariri the father’s absence, political Harirism stands at a crucial crossroads, facing a difficult question that Hariri cannot answer: whether to redefine itself outside the logic of settlements or transform into a historical phase tied to a man, a time, and regional patronage that no longer exists—patronage that its supporters now see no need for—despite the fact that no group or individual has been able to fill the void it left in the street, among its audience, in the political project, or in the Sunni community's role within the governance equation.