Lebanon’s weak negotiating position and the conditions of direct talks with Israel
The Lebanese authority is unable to sit at the negotiating table with the Israeli government under American sponsorship. It is afraid of the outbreak of internal strife here, of a coup happening there, and of the renewal of civil war.
It is not able to do so because it would lose everything at the negotiation table from the very first moment, on the basis that whoever does not control the land, the decision making, and the authority cannot provide guarantees of peace in exchange for obtaining the rights it is demanding.
A leadership that is afraid of a faction within its own state is not taken seriously by anyone, especially when it is facing an enemy that does not trust it, nor its intentions, nor its capabilities.
Indeed, only a few hours after the announcement by the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the spokesperson unit of the Israeli army published an informational statement about the seizure of weapons depots south of the Litani River, and it attached comments that undermined the mission carried out by the army in that region.
This renewed emphasis on evidence that allows Israel to distrust the Lebanese army was not isolated, but rather part of material that will be handed over to the Israeli ambassador in Washington, Yechiel Leiter, who is meeting today, Tuesday, at the United States Department of State with his Lebanese counterpart Nada Hamadeh Mouawad, in order to set an agenda on the basis of which direct negotiations between Lebanese and Israeli delegations would be launched.
Instructions from the President of the Republic General Joseph Aoun to the ambassador in Washington require that the first preliminary point be that Israel stops firing in all of Lebanon.
In contrast, instructions from the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the Israeli ambassador require agreement on two main topics for discussion. The first is the disarmament of Hezbollah, and the second is reaching a peace agreement between the two countries.
Israel’s portrayal of the Lebanese state as incapable of actually disarming Hezbollah in the area south of the Litani River means a lack of trust in its ability to carry out this task across all of Lebanon. Therefore, launching negotiations requires that the Lebanese authority prove it will take sufficient measures to implement this mission, which places the authority before the option of cooperating with Israel.