The Israeli attacks are not spontaneous or a hasty reaction, but part of a plan that awaited a zero hour. It is likely that the controversial agreement, which halted 39 days of the American-Israeli war through a two-week truce, gave Israel the green light to proceed with a wide-scale war against Lebanon with severe intensity and danger. The truce with Iran, despite its fragility, allows Israel to focus its military effort on Lebanon without being targeted—according to its terms—by Iranian missiles and drones.

Israel is conducting an operation that began with “targeting 100 Hezbollah sites and 150 combat assets in one minute,” according to the Israeli army, whose Chief of Staff has indicated that the raids will continue under the operation “Eternal Darkness.” This reinforces what Benjamin Netanyahu had stated—that the U.S.–Pakistan ceasefire agreement does not include Lebanon, despite claims from Iran to the contrary. Israel is pressing ahead with its “uprooting” campaign, apparently confident that Iran will not intervene in support of its allies in Lebanon, even if it remains dissatisfied, so as not to jeopardize an already contentious agreement. 

Lebanon relies on certain advantages to avoid Gaza Strip’s fate. The country maintains Arab, regional, and international ties capable of acting—if they choose—to stop it from becoming a byproduct of the international conflict with Iran, whether in war, truce, or peace.

Lebanon is paying the price for decades of neglect that weakened the state and allowed illegal weapons to become a determining factor in decisions of war and peace. It is also bearing the cost of the state’s fragile performance in its new phase, which—through inability or lack of will—has allowed Hezbollah to set the timing of war on Tehran’s behalf, while Israel sets its counter-timing, even as the world seeks to accommodate Tehran.

Lebanon fears that the new war against it may be the underlying reason for the temporary halt in the conflict with Iran. American, British, and Israeli strikes between 2024 and 2025 inflicted heavy losses on the Houthis in Yemen, helping explain their restrained response, which fell short of expectations in supporting Iran during the recent war. That major war saw the United States and Israel act together in a rare alignment, deploying some of the most destructive force to eliminate senior leadership in Iran and carry out systematic strikes against nuclear and missile programs, as well as key infrastructure across the country.

Critical days ahead