If Iran falls, is Turkiyë next?
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ثريدز
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About a month ago, several dividing lines between the Turkish government and opposition parties softened. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) pursued closer relations with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), in a move many speculate was linked to developments in Iran and concern about regional repercussions.
Emergency plans
Ankara has privately urged the U.S. not to strike Iran, fearing, among other outcomes, a new wave of refugees. If the U.S. and Iran slip into a wide-scale war, tens or hundreds of thousands of Iranians would likely arrive at the border, adding to the over three million Syrians already seeking refuge in Turkiyë.
Indeed, the newspaper "Turkiyë" reported last week that Ankara has prepared for several scenarios, including establishing a buffer zone in Iran to prevent refugees from entering its territory. Based on its experience with Syria, Turkiyë may act faster this time within Iranian territory if the regime falls. Barring this, the repercussions would be felt, not just by the state as a whole, but by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s party, on whom the Syrian refugee crisis imposed a noticeable electoral burden.
Multiple paths ahead
Following numerous strikes on Iran in the past two years, Israel has also expanded its presence in Syria. Ankara increasingly sees Tel Aviv as the greatest threat to the Iranian stability and the territorial integrity of Syria. After the hypothetical fall of Tehran, Israel might feel bolder in implementing its Syrian policies. If the regime collapses, there are two scenarios that spell problems for Ankara: the first is Iran sinking into internal chaos, the second is a smooth transition to a new government. In both cases, the United States will have reason to reduce its focus on developments in Syria.
It is difficult to restrain Israeli actions in the Middle East without continuous U.S. pressure. If Israel provides Washington with sensitive information that supports a quick victory against Iran, Tel Aviv could gain greater freedom of movement in Syria. The political translation of that freedom could appear through support for the Kurds in northern Syria, who are reeling after Damascus dealt a heavy blow to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) last month. In other words, the fall of the Iranian regime could mean a rollback in northern Syria… and beyond.
“Next: Turkiyë”
In the most extreme scenario, the collapse of the regime could trigger separatist tendencies in Iran, particularly among the Kurds. After the fall of the Shah, the Iranian Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDPI) declared its demand for autonomy but faced rejection from Tehran. The military conflict between the Revolutionary Guard and the party lasted about two years and later flared intermittently.
Considering the contact between Kurdish villages and towns in northwestern Iran and southeastern Turkiyë—where interactions in Kurdish uprisings on both sides of the border have existed since the late 19th century—autonomy demands by Iranian Kurds could pave the way for or inspire similar demands in Turkiyë. This is the greatest danger for Turkish officials. The official Turkish term for Kurds, “Mountain Turks”, is not insignificant.
Perhaps the most circulated phrase in the Turkish media recently is: “If Iran falls, Turkiyë is next.” And quickly, according to some estimates. “Turkiyë must avoid civil war and disintegration in this region,” said international affairs expert, and opposition figure, Eric Mutercimler in a local media interview.
He added: “If Iran falls and Turkiyë fails to act accordingly, following the logic of realpolitik, Turkiyë's lifespan will be 60 minutes.”
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.
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