Betting on chaos: How wars became online entertainment and profit
It is not new that there are Western apps and websites specialized in sports betting. Hardly a match goes by without noticing the logos of these companies on jerseys or their advertising boards around the stadium. However, it seems that Western audiences have grown tired of the usual bets on Barcelona and Real Madrid and have become saturated with predicting the Super Bowl champion.
This is where ingenious Western platforms like PolyMarket come in. They have expanded from the narrow world of sports and games into a broader and more entertaining space. They allow users the freedom to predict anything without restrictions, and users themselves can start these predictions on the platform about any topic or event that interests them. On PolyMarket, you can bet on the winner of the Oscars, the release date of Kanye West’s new album, or the possibility of the Democratic Party nominating Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the next US presidential election. Predict whatever you like.
Let me give you an example closer to home, inspired by our current situation.
There is a striking bet on PolyMarket titled “Which countries will face Iranian strikes in March?” Since the topic is very serious and people are wagering their life savings on war, they responded to the language of numbers and statistics, which estimated the probability of Iran launching another strike on Jordan this month at 20 percent.
Excitement
Those who bet on Jordan’s safety were hopeful and dreamed of making a small fortune from the wager. Unfortunately, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was not cooperative, and the dollars of these hopeful bettors were destroyed along with the missile, fragments of which fell on Amman a few days ago.
But it is not all bad, as there are many similar bets on PolyMarket for those seeking both excitement and financial gain. There are wagers on the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz, on the extent of the collapse of Dubai’s real estate index, on whether the Houthis will strike Saudi Arabia, and on the likelihood of the US embassy in Baghdad being evacuated. Some bets are limited to the number of countries Iran might target—most of them, of course, in the Arab world. Will they stop at the six Gulf states, or will they extend their reach further? Predict and win on who will be touched by war.
The excitement on PolyMarket reached such a level that last week they opened what is almost a bar in Washington, allowing bettors to meet, discuss, follow live news, and, of course, place bets on a war raging thousands of kilometers away.
Human monsters
No one should be surprised at this moral decay. PolyMarket and Kalshi, another giant betting platform, hosted wagers during the Gaza war on the likelihood of the Gaza Strip being subjected to ethnic extermination and on whether a famine would be officially declared there. The truth is, a significant number of human monsters participated in those bets and filled their pockets as well.
The Gulf public opinion has managed to curb many of those gloaters in recent times, forcing them to change their condescending tone toward us. I do not believe it is incapable of restraining vile platforms whose fools wager daily on our bankruptcy, destruction, and death.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar