Tensions escalate in the ongoing crisis between the United States and Iran. Without formal negotiations, both parties are forced to signal through military movements and threats on broadcast television. And while regional actors such as Saudi, the UAE, and Turkey have proactively pursued mediation, Iran is forced to puff out its chest, exaggerating the extent of its deterrence.

On the table is nuclear security, the limiting of ballistic missiles, and the role of Iran’s regional proxies. Naturally, Israel prefers a war scenario with the primary goal of completely eliminating Iran’s nuclear program, but it would not pursue this course without U.S. participation, or at a minimum American approval. This reflects Israel’s nuclear strategy since its founding, which David Ben-Gurion described as a total monopoly over nuclear capability in the region.

Iran has significantly advanced in its uranium enrichment capabilities, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, exceeding the ceiling allowed under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It now possesses the readiness (uranium enriched to 60 percent) to join the nuclear powers club within a few months, an action which constitutes a red line for both Israel and the United States.

The three scenarios remain:

First, the parties engage in diplomatic deescalation and return to talks on the key issues, particularly nuclear enrichment. One challenge will be the high threshold for Iran regarding U.S. demands (particularly after Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement known as the P5+1 deal). The U.S. president is unlikely to accept anything less than capitulation on the nuclear file, either by demanding zero nuclear enrichment or putting effective monitoring mechanisms in place, perhaps by mandating that all enrichment center's remain outside Iran. This will be hard for Tehran to accept, but with the proper domestic spin, it may be salvageable.

Second, a repeat of the limited 12-day war last June, which could open the door to indirect talks, likely putting the U.S. in a better negotiating position.

Third, a slide into an open war that goes beyond “the Iranian battlefield” and threatens to involve the major players across the Middle East. In areas with temporary ceasefires, this could ignite into persistent fighting, exhaust American public opinion and raise overall costs on the endeavor. Ultimately, settlement efforts will either be founded on the complete capitulation of the regime, or on a weakened American posture heading into negotiations.

The coming days will present a clearer picture on our current path, but the destination will remain difficult to predict.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.