Price movements have clearly reflected market anxiety, with oil trading today around 113 dollars per barrel. Brent crude has seen an exceptional rise of about 59 percent since the beginning of March, marking the largest monthly increase in its history. Attention is now focused on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which 12 percent of global oil supplies pass, amid technical warnings that continued disruptions could push prices above 120 dollars and possibly reach 150 dollars per barrel.

U.S. President Donald Trump's statements dominated the economic scene, as he suggested the possibility of taking control of Iranian oil assets, specifically Kharg Island, which represents Tehran’s main export hub. These remarks, which recalled previous examples of military intervention, immediately added a risk premium to crude prices.

Performance of Safe-Haven Assets and the Link with Inflation
Amid this uncertainty, gold has shown strong resilience, returning to 4500 dollars per ounce and maintaining price stability despite the strength of the dollar index, which remains above 100 points. This reflects a flight to quality approach adopted by institutional investors. Current gold prices are directly affected by inflation expectations driven by soaring oil prices. From a strategic perspective, it will be important to monitor central banks’ ability to contain inflation. If inflation spirals out of control and current interest rate levels prove insufficient to slow price growth, real yields will decline, a scenario that would strengthen gold’s fundamental value as a major hedging tool.

Financial Markets and Monetary Policy
In financial markets, the Japanese Nikkei index is experiencing its strongest selling pressure since 2008, driven by real concerns over a potential stagflation scenario in the country. Expectations indicate that the Bank of Japan may need to raise interest rates in April to curb imported inflation, while Japanese bond yields have reached their highest levels since 1999. At the same time, European bonds have performed poorly, showing their worst results in a decade due to consecutive inflation spikes, while the UK’s FTSE index has shown relative resilience, able to absorb part of the shock thanks to the significant weighting of mining and energy companies such as Rio Tinto, BP, and Shell, which directly benefited from the commodity price surge.

Conclusion
We are facing a complex situation that requires careful portfolio management. Ongoing pressures in key maritime routes will remain the main driver of market volatility in the near term, while close attention is needed to central banks’ responses to current supply shocks and their ability to protect investors’ real yields.