Iran today finds itself at a critical crossroads, caught between mounting popular protests against the regime and threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has warned of possible strikes to force change. In reality, the Iranian regime is no longer strong enough to withstand a prolonged confrontation amid growing American influence reshaping the region.

It can no longer effectively leverage its regional proxies to maintain a deterrent balance or prevent the looming threat of war that Israel is once again preparing for, as these weaknesses have undermined the regime’s entire structure.

The question is no longer whether Washington will strike Iran, but when, as indirect diplomatic channels have closed, stalling any new political path. Escalation now appears inevitable and could spill into Lebanon unless key actors - particularly Hezbollah - recognize that the threat is not directed at them alone. Lebanon itself risks being caught on the fault line of a major upheaval under Trump’s push to reshape the region.

The imminent threat to Iran goes beyond the potential overthrow of its regime - a goal both the U.S. and Israel appear to pursue 0 and lies in the risk of the situation spiraling into chaos. Such a scenario would be disastrous for the entire region, as a collapse or fragmentation of Iran could destabilize neighboring states. Lebanon could be directly affected, given the link between events in Iran and Israeli threats against Hezbollah, particularly in light of recent escalations and Tel Aviv’s war signals unless disarmament occurs.

Consequently, if Iran is targeted, Lebanon may also face strikes against Hezbollah, raising urgent questions about whether the group will act rationally - pursuing internal settlements and ceding authority to the state - to shield Lebanon from the fallout of these looming regional changes.

Iran, along with its ally Hezbollah, is no longer able to shift regional balances or confront Israel in the way it did before the war to support Gaza. Even if Hezbollah rebuilds its strength after the devastating 66-day war, which severely damaged its structure and environment, its arsenal no longer provides true deterrence. Circumstances have changed, as have the realities on the ground, making confrontation with the same methods and slogans - once projected as symbols of strength - no longer viable. Today, Iran faces serious internal threats, with a weakened regime struggling even to manage domestic protests, which in turn undermines its financial and logistical support for Hezbollah. As a result, Hezbollah must refrain from using weapons that were originally diverted from resisting the Israeli occupation, in line with the ceasefire agreement approved in November 2024.

The immediate priority is to shield Lebanon from the regional storm and the unfolding crisis in Iran. Hezbollah can no longer continue pursuing the same policies and slogans that led to its past defeats, nor can it rely on assurances from Iranian officials such as Abbas Araghchi, as Iran itself remains under serious threat due to its regional investments. Hezbollah must now move away from the risky bets that have put the group - and the country - in a precarious position, regardless of internal pressures, promises, or potential gains. Above all, it must break free from these illusions to protect Lebanon before disaster strikes.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.