Miscalculation almost sparked new Israeli-Iranian war
In recent weeks, there has been frequent talk about Israeli and Iranian military warnings of war, and widespread concern that miscalculation by either side could reopen the front. New information revealed by former Israeli Military Intelligence chief Tamir Hayman indicated that Israel almost fell into a miscalculation that could have led to a direct war with Iran again.
Hayman said that Israel nearly launched an attack on Iran twice in recent weeks because of a "misjudgment," noting that the latest escalation that almost broke out "came as a result of misjudging the risks."
He pointed out that Iran’s preparations for a possible strike created "inevitable coordination" between Israel and the United States, and that the escalation in turn strengthened military cooperation between the Israeli army and U.S. forces.
He added that U.S. moves against Iran are "already underway," and that future steps could range from deception and influence operations, to cyber attacks, to special operations, or even open war, depending on developments.
He noted that "there is no neutral position at the moment," speaking of an "active American influence campaign."
Hayman considered that "as long as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains in power, a full-scale Iranian strike on Israel is unlikely due to his traditionally cautious leadership style." He added that "if a more daring leader emerges backed by the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC, Iran’s elite military force), strategic calculations could change."
Hayman concluded by noting that "if the United States carries out only a symbolic strike and we (Israel) come under attack, we will not be able to contain it."