How might the U.S. military operation in Venezuela and the arrest of its President Nicolás Maduro affect the diplomatic efforts made by President Donald Trump's administration to find a peaceful settlement to the Russian-Ukrainian war, which is nearing the end of its fourth year?    

Europeans have avoided condemning the American operation, which many consider to have been carried out outside the norms of international law, similar to the American strikes on boats the U.S. claims are carrying drugs to the United States off the Venezuelan coast and in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

The Europeans' muted tone aims to avoid reigniting disagreements with Washington on other issues, primarily the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It is known that Europeans succeeded before the Venezuelan operation in convincing Trump to make amendments to the American plan composed of 28 points, including a Ukrainian concession of the Donbas region in the east in exchange for Russian agreement to cease hostilities. The American plan is said to have taken some of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's demands into account, regarding the absence of explicit concessions over Donbas and proposing the establishment of demilitarized industrial zones.    

Europeans also managed to persuade Trump to provide "strong security guarantees" for Ukraine, ensuring that there will be no further Russian attacks after signing a peace agreement. French President Emmanuel Macron introduced the idea of a "coalition of the willing." This coalition is supposed to include countries ready to contribute to providing security guarantees to Ukraine and even establish a multinational force to monitor the potential ceasefire.  

 
The European alterations are not welcomed in Russia. The Kremlin's accusation of Ukraine attempting to target Russian President Vladimir Putin's residence in Novgorod, located between Moscow and Saint Petersburg, adds doubts about Russia's readiness to proceed with the modified U.S. plan, noting that U.S. officials have expressed skepticism about the Russian narrative, while Kyiv and its European partners suggest that the purpose of Russian allegations is to provide a pretext for rejecting the revised American plan.    

This was followed by a hardening of the Russian negotiating position, with threats of retaliation being issued. Kyiv interpreted this as a prelude to potential Russian strikes on Ukrainian government sites, prompting Zelensky to request Trump intervenes to prevent Russia from carrying out its threats.   

With Trump once again raising the issue of American control over the Danish island of Greenland for reasons of "U.S. national security," there are serious concerns about NATO's cohesion should Trump insist on acquiring the island by force or purchase.   

Almost a year has passed since Trump's return to the White House to address the Russian-Ukrainian conflict without achieving any diplomatic breakthrough to halt the most dangerous war on European soil since World War II. 

Now, the U.S. quagmire in Venezuela threatens to divert Trump’s focus from Europe, raising concerns about the continuation of the war for another year or more, amid real fears of its expansion to NATO states. This is evidenced by the ongoing NATO mobilization in Poland, the Baltic states, and Romania to counter drones flying over these countries' skies, either deliberately or inadvertently, during the exchanges of Russian-Ukrainian assaults that are increasing in scale and intensity.   

Hoping for the exhaustion of both warring parties as a key motivator for U.S. diplomatic moves does not appear validated by the ongoing escalation on the ground.   

In the Middle East, the U.S. focus on Venezuela has impacted efforts to advance the American plan for Gaza from its first to second phase. While the announcement of the formation of the International Stabilization Force and “Peace Council” to oversee Gaza was scheduled for the beginning of this month, no breakthrough in this direction is apparent.