Given the wide gap between American and Iranian demands, it was not surprising that marathon negotiations in Islamabad between the U.S. delegation, headed by Vice President J.D. Vance, and the Iranian delegation, headed by Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, ended without an agreement.

Vance attributed the failure to reach an agreement to Tehran’s refusal to accept American conditions, including the prohibition on the production of nuclear weapons, which is President Donald Trump’s main objective.

Where does the failure of 21 hours of the highest-level U.S.–Iran negotiations since 1979, especially given that they came after forty days of war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, leave the trajectory of escalation and de-escalation in the coming phase?

Notably, despite the lack of immediate positive results, neither side announced a withdrawal from the temporary truce that came into effect last Wednesday after the war reached its most dangerous phase.

There is no doubt that Trump now faces choices no less difficult than those he faced during the war. Will he continue negotiations, even if that requires extending the current truce? Or will he resume the war, with all its consequences, such as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its devastating impact on the global economy, including the ongoing rise in fuel prices in the United States in a midterm election year?

Red lines... A gap without resolution

The Iranian official described this as “an understanding on some points and differences on three issues,” but the disputed issues appear to be the most complex, as they concern mutual red lines.

The United States does not want any uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, regardless of how low the percentage, and is demanding the transfer of enriched uranium at 60 percent to a third country. It is also pressing for restrictions on Iran’s missile program so that its missiles cannot reach Israel, as well as the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to unconditional international navigation and an end to Iran’s support for its “proxies” in the region.

These are likely the red lines conveyed by Vance to the Iranian delegation. Conversely, Tehran refuses, despite suffering significant losses during the war, to abandon its right to enrich uranium on its territory, and shows openness to restrictions aimed at preventing it from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, it categorically rejects any restrictions on its missile program, considering it a key deterrent against American and Israeli air superiority.

Additionally, Iran has added the Strait of Hormuz to its post-war conditions as a pressure tool to secure financial revenues and leverage the strait in extracting concessions in any final agreement that would lift economic sanctions and guarantee that no new war is launched against it.