From empire to unrest: Iran’s history and the 1979 regime under pressure
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Predicting the collapse of regimes is among the most challenging tasks in the social sciences, if not the most difficult. For example, very few American thinkers anticipated the fall of the Soviet Union, even in the mid-1980s.
For instance, former diplomat George Kennan, one of the architects of the Cold War containment policy, described the disintegration of the Soviet Union as nothing "more surprising and astonishing." Today, similar challenges arise when trying to interpret the ongoing protests against the rule of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
If history speaks
Initially, the United States failed to foresee the collapse of the Shah's regime. In a speech that still resonates today, former President Jimmy Carter praised his host, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, in December 1977, describing Iran as a "haven of stability" in a troubled region - despite the fact that protests that year were already beginning to take hold.
Understanding current developments in Iran becomes increasingly difficult when considering the tenuous connection between past and present. Former U.S. diplomat Henry Kissinger described Iran’s foundational legacy as that of an empire governed by a skilled bureaucratic apparatus, overseeing vast provinces with a multi-ethnic army built through expansion in all directions. Iranians saw themselves as carriers of a humanitarian message to the world, which fueled a growing sense of national pride. In other words, Iran has long been adept at managing its internal contradictions, strengthened by a strong sense of national cohesion.
Over the past two centuries, there are few examples of revolutions that completely overthrew the existing regime. Changes in power often resulted from one tribal group dominating another, as when the Qajars replaced the Zands in 1794. Despite the assassination of several Qajar leaders, including its founder, the dynasty persisted until Ahmad Shah. Between 1905 and 1911, Iran’s Constitutional Revolution created new institutions, such as the parliament, which later played a role in ousting Ahmad Shah in 1925 and consolidating Pahlavi rule following Reza Khan’s 1921 coup. Aside from the Western-backed 1953 coup - which did not alter the fundamental nature of the regime—Iran had to wait until 1979 for a truly radical transformation.
The rarity of revolutions in Iran over the past century makes predicting future developments particularly difficult. At the same time, the frequent protests since 1979 have done little to change this pattern. Observers often claimed that "this time was different," yet the regime consistently succeeded in suppressing dissent.
What no one considers
Ultimately, while history offers limited insight into Iranian revolutions, the present shows that the current regime is at its weakest point since coming to power. At the very least, no one today considers Iran a "haven of stability."