The specter of a direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel is once again looming over the Middle East, amid an unprecedented escalation in Israeli threats and a steady stream of media leaks warning of a possible “new round of fighting” in 2026. While all parties officially deny any intention to go to war, political and military indicators suggest that the conflict has not been closed, but has instead entered a more complex and sensitive phase.

A war of words… and the risk of slipping
In recent weeks, Israel has intensified its warning rhetoric toward Iran, backed by a series of leaks attributed to senior security and intelligence sources, pointing to a “growing danger” stemming from Iran’s efforts to rebuild its missile arsenal. These leaks, which coincided with preparations for a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, were not read merely as political pressure tactics but also sparked concern within Israel’s own security establishment.

Israeli military officials warned that excessive saber-rattling could lead to miscalculations by Tehran and potentially provoke a preemptive and poorly calculated response. According to these assessments, Iran is increasingly relying on Israeli media coverage to gauge Tel Aviv’s intentions, amid a decline in its intelligence capabilities inside Israel. Officials argue that “media noise” does not necessarily strengthen deterrence, but may instead ignite an escalation neither side desires at this stage - particularly in the absence of effective diplomatic channels or international de-escalation mechanisms.

Iran’s missiles… the core of Israeli concern
At the heart of Israel’s fears today lies Iran’s missile program. Tel Aviv now views ballistic missile production as a new “red line,” marking a notable shift from its traditional doctrine, which for decades focused primarily on Iran’s nuclear file. Israeli estimates, reported by U.S. and Israeli media, suggest that Iran has restarted missile production lines and could, once industrial recovery is complete, produce hundreds of missiles per month.

Iran, for its part, rejects any discussion of this issue, insisting that its missile program is “non-negotiable” and a cornerstone of its national deterrence and defense strategy - especially after damage inflicted on its nuclear program by U.S. and Israeli strikes during the 12-day war in 2025. Analysts note that this contradiction - Israel viewing missiles as an “existential threat” and Iran seeing them as a security guarantee - automatically raises the risk of confrontation, even in the absence of a clear political decision to go to war.

Trump and Netanyahu… strategic ambiguity
At the center of this picture stands the United States as the decisive factor. Despite Netanyahu’s public denial that Iran tops the agenda of his meeting with Trump, Israeli and U.S. sources confirm that the Iranian file will be the “central issue” in the talks, with particular focus on the pace of Iran’s missile and air-defense recovery.

Israel is expected to present updated intelligence assessments and multiple military scenarios, ranging from a unilateral strike to limited U.S. support, to joint operations or even direct American intervention. The U.S. position, however, remains ambiguous. Washington - despite having previously participated in strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities - appears cautious about being drawn into another war, especially given Trump’s self-styled image as a “president of peace.”

U.S. sources have indicated that there are no intelligence signs of an imminent Iranian attack, and have questioned some Israeli assessments regarding the scale of the missile threat, highlighting a clear gap between the two sides’ evaluations.

Does Iran want war?
On the other side, Western and Israeli estimates alike suggest that Iran has no immediate strategic interest in launching a full-scale war. Tehran is grappling with severe internal crises - from currency collapse to water shortages - while simultaneously rebuilding its military capabilities and drawing lessons from previous confrontations.

Iranian officials and experts stress that military preparedness does not mean seeking war, but preventing it. Tehran claims it is now “more prepared than before,” with new missile systems and strengthened air defenses. Still reeling from the shock of the previous war - launched while negotiations with Washington were ongoing - Iran nonetheless prefers a return to a diplomatic track similar to the 2015 nuclear deal, provided real guarantees are offered.

Why could war still erupt?
Despite the absence of an announced decision to go to war, several intersecting factors keep the possibility of a 2026 confrontation alive:

- Miscalculation and miscommunication amid an open psychological and media war.

- Israel’s designation of the missile program as a red line requiring, under its new doctrine, a military response.

- Israel’s desire to exploit a moment of relative Iranian weakness before its military recovery is complete.

- Domestic and political pressure on Netanyahu’s government is pushing it toward escalation.

- U.S. ambiguity leaves the door open to multiple scenarios.

A possible war… but with limits
Ultimately, war between Iran and Israel appears more “possible” than “inevitable.” Regional balances, mutual deterrence calculations, and the high cost of war for both sides mean that any confrontation, if it occurs, would likely be tightly constrained in scope and duration.

What is certain, however, is that the conflict is no longer confined to the shadows. It has become public, rolling, and open to dangerous possibilities. The fate of escalation may ultimately rest with Trump alone, as the only figure capable of restraining Netanyahu from a gamble that could derail what progress has been made on the Gaza file.

Between threats and leaks, the region remains stuck in a gray zone - a war that has not begun, but has not ended either. It continues to smolder beneath the ashes.