This artery, through which more than 150,000 ships pass annually and 80% of Europe’s energy and trade needs flow, is now at the heart of a complex international struggle, intertwining Morocco's "Port Weapons" ambitions with Iranian "Stranglehold of the Straits" threats.

The geopolitical landscape shows that the security of the Strait of Gibraltar is no accident but the result of a Moroccan preemptive strategy. Morocco has transformed its position from merely a state bordering the strait into a 'logistic arsenal' with Tanger Med Port and, soon, Nador West Med. This economic soft power is reinforced by "sharp nails," represented by the royal navy, demonstrated in the "Sarex" maneuvers and close NATO cooperation in the "Sea Guardian" operation. Indeed, the joint drills between the Moroccan frigate Tariq Ibn Ziyad and the Spanish frigate Reina Sofia in November 2025, together with the British base in Gibraltar and Morocco's efforts to enhance its naval arsenal, including submarines, send a clear message to all concerned that the strait is secured by both law and military power.

Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt international maritime passages are not merely military maneuvers but a form of economic blackmail aimed at raising maritime insurance costs and unsettling the global economy. This represents a globalization of war intended to pressure the US president. Regardless of the outcomes of the ongoing conflict or whether President Trump is affected, the question remains: does Iran truly have the capability to choke or close the Strait of Gibraltar?

The reality suggests that any Iranian threat can succeed only through a "proxy war," a strategy in which Iran is highly skilled. Here, the concerning alliance between Tehran and the Polisario Front emerges. Iranian support for the separatists—which prompted Rabat to cut ties with Tehran in 2018—is not merely a matter of political alignment or military backing for a separatist organization. It represents an attempt to establish a strategic foothold at the Atlantic threshold, similar to Iran’s engagement with the Houthis in the Red Sea. Iran has perfected collaboration with armed groups outside formal state structures or with those effectively controlling their countries, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Morocco, with its intelligence reach across the Sahel, the Sahara, and West Africa, and strong partnerships with the US, France, Spain, Britain, and NATO, recognizes that any interference with the strait’s security constitutes a direct challenge to its national sovereignty. Morocco’s success in managing substantial annual human flows—illustrated by over 3 million Moroccan migrants returning home during the 2024–2025 summer crossings—while maintaining strict security control, demonstrates that Rabat is the true guardian of this vital waterway.