Many who have experienced previous political eras in the United States, myself included, wonder what has changed in Washington that allows some pivotal turns—sometimes those determining the destinies of other nations and peoples—to become hostage to decisions made by the American president alone, or almost so.
Trump's unconventional initiatives, not aligned with international laws and norms—such as his demands to annex Canada and Greenland—were unprecedented and unexpected. Then, on February 28, came his decision to launch a war on Iran.
It is known that he discussed the matter in advance with the Israeli Prime Minister but did not consult any of Iran’s neighbors nor any allied countries with the United States. Through prior coordination and consultation with these countries, the subsequent shock effects could have been mitigated.
Trump himself acknowledged, after the war broke out, that Iran’s assaults on its Arab neighbors were his “biggest surprise.” He would not have been surprised had he consulted or listened to others. The decision-making circle in America has shrunk, and the power of the executive authority has increased over the years. This trend continued—and even became more entrenched—with the Republicans’ arrival at the White House. However, it is inaccurate to claim that this reality stems solely from the current presidential term. Since around the nineties, the executive authority has dominated decisions, while the roles of the legislative and judicial branches have gradually diminished, along with the traditional checks and balances that used to limit the overreach of any constitutional institution.
In particular, Congress’s ability to restrain the presidency has disappeared. The legislative chambers largely abandoned their oversight powers, including the authority to declare war, and now they are attempting to rectify the situation after it is already too late.
Over the years, generations of influential and experienced figures in foreign affairs have vanished from the ranks of legislators and their staffs. Some newly elected members of Congress even boast about not having passports, signaling that their focus is solely on domestic and local matters. The pursuit of consensus between the Republican and Democratic parties has also disappeared, replaced by combative polarization fueled by ideological hostility.
Moreover, the role of senior state officials was marginalized, except for those whose ideological alignment with the ruling camp was openly clear. This peaked under the current administration, where the president surrounded himself with advisors primarily from his family, personal acquaintances, or a narrow circle of political supporters. Among these were Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, whose roles were crucial during the negotiations preceding the war with Tehran.
The danger of power being concentrated in so few hands is that some decision-makers in the region and beyond might assume the American president will not easily forfeit the interests of his friends and allies. Yet Trump has his priorities, which rarely deviate from the “America First” principle. In addition, the Israeli influence on American decision-making cannot be ignored—or exaggerated.
I remember meeting the late President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali for the first time in the mid-eighties. He asked me whether the influence of the pro-Israel lobby in America was real or a myth. I told him that the influence was indeed real. If he asked me the same question today, I would say that this influence still exists but has significantly diminished, especially since the Gaza war. This development did not prevent Benjamin Netanyahu from playing a crucial role in persuading the American president to favor the military option over diplomacy and set a date for the strike against Iran; the convergences between the two men’s visions for the future of the region are numerous.
Today, even if the end of the war does not seem imminent, it is not too early to consider what will follow, as the region must certainly be taken into account in the post-war arrangements—so that no one will be surprised this time by the decisions Trump might make.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.
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