With the U.S. deadline for Lebanon - or the two-month window granted to the state to finalize its weapons containment plan - Israeli pressure is intensifying, marked by continued threats of war and attempts to impose harsh conditions on Lebanon through negotiations within the Mechanism Committee, particularly regarding the southern security zone.

Meanwhile, Washington seeks to capitalize on this opportunity by first finalizing the situation south of the Litani River, before moving to contain weapons north of it by advancing the army into a second phase aimed at ending Hezbollah’s influence.

At the same time, negotiations within the Mechanism Committee are opening new avenues through which Washington seeks to broker an agreement between Lebanon and Israel to resolve the border issue, based on a vision of an economic zone coupled with security arrangements designed to ensure the protection of Israel’s northern settlements.

The American opportunity does not reflect a shift in Washington’s strategy but rather stems from its broader regional calculations. For Lebanon, however, it represents a new path to safeguard the gains achieved by the presidency, the government, and the army, without alleviating the pressure surrounding Hezbollah. The group has come to be nearly convinced that it can no longer maneuver south of the Litani, nor deploy or use its weapons in what was once its primary theater of support operations. That arena was effectively lost following the 66-day Israeli war and the subsequent ceasefire agreement, which ended Hezbollah’s control south of the Litani by transferring its weapons to the Lebanese state.

In reality, Hezbollah is now absent from areas south of the Litani, despite Israeli claims and narratives suggesting it is rebuilding its strength. The facts on the ground indicate that the Lebanese army has assumed responsibility in the area and is preparing to announce the completion of the first phase of weapons containment in the south, pending progress in negotiations that would pave the way for an Israeli army withdrawal from the occupied points. On this basis, the state is preparing to announce a series of commitments tied to the ceasefire agreement - first, to assure the United States that it is moving forward with the implementation of its weapons withdrawal plan in line with its obligations, betting on U.S. pressure to push Israel toward a parallel withdrawal through negotiations within the Mechanism; and second, to avert any Israeli war by stripping the occupation of its pretexts.

These developments do not rule out the possibility of an Israeli war, which Washington does not explicitly reject. Rather, it appears to be postponing it in line with its broader regional strategy - particularly as it relates to Syria, Lebanon, and Israel - and in connection with potential developments involving Iran. This reading is reinforced by U.S. references to weapons containment and ongoing negotiations with Israel. The negotiations on these files remain largely secret, although some outcomes are already visible on the ground south of the Litani. The Lebanese army is carrying out its duties in coordination with UNIFIL, acting on direct requests from the committee. Notably, the Mechanism’s statement following its latest meeting emphasized preparing conditions for the safe return of civilians, supporting reconstruction, and addressing economic priorities. However, an Israeli veto prevents any concrete steps until security arrangements are agreed upon, following the completion of Hezbollah’s weapons withdrawal.

The negotiation process reveals the imbalance in power dynamics and the continued Israeli war threats. The emerging direction being solidified through negotiations within the Mechanism is that the army will take on verification tasks, ensuring that weapon containment is carried out under direct international supervision. This aligns with the French request for the army to document its procedures, as reflected in the army commander’s report at the Paris Quadrilateral meeting. Meanwhile, Israel is pushing to advance the negotiations to a new phase by proposing the creation of committees to address future issues concerning the border areas.

Avoiding Israeli escalation has become the central focus of the next phase, as Lebanon moves on multiple fronts in parallel with negotiations to limit Israeli demands and secure support for enforcing an Israeli withdrawal. However, several issues remain on hold pending the meeting between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu scheduled for the 29th of this month. As for Hezbollah, despite its opposition, it is likely to be put in a difficult position by the army’s upcoming announcement of the completed weapons withdrawal south of the Litani. The party understands that negotiations between Lebanon and Israel will extend beyond security matters, at least according to the U.S. plan for the region’s future.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.