A recent survey indicates that Hamas is regaining strength among Palestinians following two years of intense conflict in Gaza. A survey conducted last October, after a fragile ceasefire, shows that Hamas has recovered from the negative perceptions it faced during the war.

According to the new survey, 32 percent of participants expressed support for Hamas, compared to 20 percent for Fatah, the Palestinian party recognized internationally as the backbone of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

Meanwhile, 43 percent either supported neither party or were undecided. The survey also found that 60 percent approved of Hamas’s actions during the Gaza War, while 43 percent supported military action as a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, with another 43 percent favoring negotiations.

Furthermore, 59 percent of respondents described Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 - the trigger for the deadly conflict - as a “legitimate war.” In addition, 55 percent of Gazans and 78 percent of West Bank residents opposed disarming Hamas as proposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump, even if it could prevent further conflict.

Hamas has consistently maintained it will disarm only when a Palestinian state is established. Mediators have proposed that Hamas relinquish heavy weaponry, such as missiles and shells, while retaining lighter arms like rifles, pistols, and machine guns.

The survey showed that 50 percent of respondents in Gaza and 39 percent in the West Bank supported Trump’s proposal, while 62 percent endorsed Hamas’s response. Additionally, 51 percent of Gazans favored establishing a new post-war administration in Gaza independent of any political party.

Regarding an Arab-Muslim force tasked with stabilizing the region, 68 percent of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank opposed it if disarming Hamas were part of its mission. In contrast, 53 percent of Gazans supported the force provided it did not involve disarmament.

Experts note that these results do not indicate Hamas would win an election if held today. Rather, they illustrate why Hamas appears strong and cohesive, particularly in light of Trump’s 20-point plan to end the Gaza war and his pressure on both Israel and Hamas to accept its first phase.

According to a knowledgeable Asian, non-Arab researcher, Israel and Hamas agreed to a fragile ceasefire, which continues to require periodic reinforcement, alongside prisoner exchanges and the return of the remains of those killed, whether in Israeli prisons or Hamas tunnels.

Neither Israel nor Hamas fully welcomed Trump’s initiative, unlike most Arab, Islamic, and European nations, which expressed cautious support. The hesitation reflects Trump’s perceived unpredictability and both sides’ desire to probe the plan’s limits. Disputes over prisoner exchanges and other provisions have repeatedly brought the ceasefire close to collapse.

The researcher notes that Hamas’s refusal to disarm complicates Trump’s proposals, including the creation of an international Arab-Islamic stabilization force. While Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu interpreted Hamas’s acceptance of the first phase as agreement to all terms, Hamas maintains that further negotiation is required. Renewed Israeli airstrikes on Gaza appear to have reinforced Hamas’s position, emboldening it to confront armed Gazans opposing its authority, though they are not the majority.

Trump’s comments, including statements warning Hamas of potential eradication, may have also annoyed Israel. Hamas may feel encouraged by the possibility of Trump pressuring Israel to release Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti, widely regarded as a unifying, non-sectarian figure.

Survey results show that 43 percent of Palestinians would vote for Barghouti as president after his release, compared with 17 percent supporting Hamas and just 5 percent supporting the Palestinian Authority.

Following Trump’s mention of Barghouti, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority agreed in Cairo to support a non-political committee to govern Gaza post-war. Senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk warned on Al Jazeera that attempts to eliminate or marginalize Hamas could trigger civil war and widespread chaos.