The April 25th attacks targeting several Malian cities, which led to the deaths of notable military figures, including Defense Minister General Sadio Camara, were not ordinary attacks; they were considered the largest of their kind in years.

Interestingly, the events in Mali came two weeks after Bamako joined countries supporting Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Sahara, following a statement from Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop on Friday, April 10, confirming his country’s support for the Moroccan initiative.

Mali’s supportive stance towards the Polisario Front was merely a tactic adopted by successive regimes to avoid harsh reactions from its northern neighbor Algeria, given that the scorching winds have always blown from the north.

Mali has been experiencing chronic instability and security fragility since 2012 due to various factors, including the Tuareg rebellion in the north, the proliferation of jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda, and a series of military coups, the latest being Asimi Goïta’s coup in 2020, which ousted civilian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta.

But what about the deep-rooted background of the Mali crisis? One key factor is the failure of the 2015 Algiers Agreement between the Malian government and the Tuareg groups.

For 35 years, Algeria has remained the main mediator between the parties to the crisis, especially since the first major Tuareg rebellion in northern Mali. Between the signing of the Tamanrasset Agreement in 1991, the National Pact in 1992, the Algiers Agreement in 2006, and finally the Peace and Reconciliation Agreement in Mali (Algiers Agreement), much water has flowed under the bridge of the Malian crisis and relations between Bamako and Algiers.

Russia steps in

The current Malian authorities have become convinced that Algerian mediation did not achieve stability, and the difference in crisis management between the two countries has become increasingly evident.

While Algeria has preferred a political solution, the authorities in Bamako have leaned toward a military approach, relying on new partners, especially Russia, thereby reshuffling the regional balance.

The current regime in Bamako, having shifted its political orientation away from Algeria, now relies on Russia as its key ally.

Algeria's role in the Sahel 

The situation appeared surreal, especially as Algeria—already in a sharp diplomatic crisis with France—found itself effectively aligned with Paris, which had previously withdrawn from the region.

Consequently, it had no choice but to prevent the loss of its vital influence in the Sahel, highlighting a strain in Algerian-Russian relations following Moscow’s entry into the region in an attempt to counterbalance France’s withdrawal, a move Algeria never welcomed.

The recent events in Mali send a clear message: Algeria will not accept a decline in its traditional role in the Sahel.

Although Algeria maintains close ties with Tuareg factions and is seen as influencing them within the Sahel’s strategic landscape, Mali accuses some of these factions of threatening the unity of the state and collaborating with armed groups, marking the core of the Mali–Algeria dispute.

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune recently stated during his periodic meeting with his country’s media that “Algeria has never interfered and will never interfere in the internal affairs of Mali or other countries,” expressing regret that “some elements who failed nationally in Mali seek to blame others, particularly through accusations against Algeria.”

And while Algeria insists on repeatedly affirming its principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of Mali or other countries, how does it then explain the shift in Bamako’s position regarding its mediation? How does Algeria justify the presence of camps for Polisario Front separatist elements on its territory? Isn’t that, in itself, a form of interference in Morocco’s internal affairs and a clear challenge to its territorial integrity?

Algeria has consistently leveraged its regional influence in the Sahel to enhance its diplomatic position in Africa, focusing primarily on supporting the Polisario Front as its central diplomatic priority. However, with its declining role in Mali, its regional influence has diminished, making its role as a mediator increasingly irrelevant.

Increased Moroccan influence

Meanwhile, Morocco has strengthened its presence in Africa through economic, diplomatic, religious, and security cooperation, giving it additional leverage in promoting its autonomy proposal.

Ultimately, some Sahel countries have moved closer to Morocco’s position, especially as their priorities shift toward security and development.

Furthermore, the realignment of alliances in the Sahel, along with the emergence of Russia’s role, has weakened Algeria’s ability to influence these countries’ positions on regional issues, particularly the Sahara question.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.