Let’s Be Brave and Challenge this Regime

Farid Hobeiche

It is hard to make sense of the reality we encounter in Lebanon in 2021. We have lived through the biggest social unrest in the short life of this country, an economic collapse described by the World Bank as one of the worst in the world since the 1900s, and the blast of the Beirut port that nearly wiped out half the city. Oh, and we are also in the middle of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic that is ravaging the planet. But that is the least of our worries.

 

What to do? That is the million-dollar question. Do we unleash our inner Camus and get used to the absurdity of this existence and just go on living as best as we can? Do we accept the dour harshness of this new life and acclimatize to the never ending lines for bread, petrol, gas and so on? Do we lie to ourselves and say nothing has happened that we can’t fix and go on spending our weekends at the sea or at the mountains?

Honestly, who the hell knows? I certainly don’t. How to live in this post-apocalyptic world is new to me. I think that each person has to find a way to carry on with his life. Whatever state of mind you have to reach in order to be able to function again is your call. There is unfortunately no secret formula to make you feel better. But we have to recover our ability to function. This is our only choice if Lebanon is to become, once again, a country we are able to live in.

So that is the easy part. Don’t get me wrong, functioning again as a person after everything we’ve been through is super hard, but it’s the easy part. Now onto the hard part, reforming Lebanon. In this political and media brouhaha and while we are surrounded by an army of payrolled journalists and experts, it might be hard to determine what the real problem is.

Are we victims of Ponzi schemes and corrupt politicians? Are we just pawns in a regional conflict and must eagerly wait and pray for the benevolence of regional powers? Is it Hezbollah, is it Syria, is it America, is it Israel, is it us? A quick look at your twitter timeline will tell you no one has a real idea.

So here is my 2 cents.

First: the problem. I like to think of it as a three-layered problem: economic, political and systemic. Economically, the bankruptcy of all commercial banks as well as the central bank, coupled with our ridiculously unbalanced balance of payments and high debt ratio to GDP, was the initial trigger. The criminal decision by the executive power to do nothing about it and wait it out has sent us back to a middle-age cash economy with spiraling inflation and a thriving black market.

Politically, I think everyone can now see that we do not have any functioning institution, the country is run as a “vetocracy” by a bunch of people who all have to agree on all decisions, be it the appointment of a low level civil servant or a financial recovery plan. Tragically, most of this bunch made it to where they are today during the bloody civil war and therefore do not have much moral qualms or feel any sense of urgency in solving pressing issues.

We also can’t forget the elephant in the room, the powerful party who has never hidden the fact that it is ideologically aligned to an external country and is a paramilitary extension to the army of that country.

Systemically, our system has simply collapsed. Our controversial socio-economic model, regardless of whether you think it was good or bad, has simply ceased to exist. The political model and monetary model that derived from this system have also ceased to exist. Finding a new model, especially a political one that most Lebanese agree on, will be challenging.

So what do we do? Faced with those seemingly unsurmountable obstacles and challenges, what do we do?

First, we adjust our expectations. We have to realize the enormity of the tasks that lie ahead of us and accept that change will be slow, gradual and hard.

Second, we build a political platform. A platform based on a set of values and principles and on technical solutions that address the problems listed above. A platform that includes a clear economic solution based on a fair distribution of losses incurred in the banking sector between depositors, bank owners, and the government. A platform that includes a clear economic solution to the balance of payment problem whilst creating a large social safety net to those in need. A platform with clear political principles based on non-sectarian ideals and progressive positions. A platform that takes a clear political position from regional adventurism and being pawns in a regional war from both sides.

Third, we build a coalition. A large popular coalition along the lines of this political platform. We then tackle all the fights ahead of us, be it syndical, municipal, legislative or even university elections. Be it the fight to stop expensive and corrupt infrastructure deals that our dear government loves cutting. We fight the fight for justice for the August 4 victims. We have to seize every opportunity to challenge this “vetocratic” regime. Only by doing so will we prove to our fellow citizens, the ones who have been conditioned to believe that Lebanon can’t function outside the realms of a sectarian system, that a worthwhile substitute does exist. That will be the most crucial part in our fight. Lebanese society, with all its psychological scars and past hardships, has become extremely biased to loss aversion, almost always preferring to accept its current situation fearing a change will take it to a worse place.

We will also need the help of the international community. The much maligned international community that is, quite rightly in most cases, often accused of having allowed this system to flourish, turning a blind eye to all the nepotism, corruption and incompetence. But we must take foreign countries for what they are and accept that foreign policy is dictated by national interests, not morals. Once we do that and impose our political coalition as a serious alternative, then we can start negotiating, as equals, with all countries of the world for all the help we can get.

As I re-read this, I must admit to myself how ridiculously unbalanced the fight with the government will be. In the best of cases, social movements are low probability system changers, often dragging on and disintegrating in front of the sheer force of established forces. But I am comforted by the fact that I do not have any other option, it’s not like I can go back to a normal life of 20-hours-a-day blackouts and gun fights at petrol stations.

Fortune will favor the brave. Let’s be brave.